A Look At Matthew Stafford’s Fantasy Potential
Posted by Case Dillon on Saturday, September 10, 2011
The high profile of the Lions franchise today is going to mean that some of you will swallow anything positive I have to say, and some of you will reject it. That said, I am not here to suggest that the Lions are an elite team, nor that Matthew Stafford is an elite quarterback. My goal is simply to lay out a hypothetical scenario in which Matthew Stafford breaks the top 5 in terms of fantasy points.
All the statistical analysis from here on out assumes he, and his receiving corps, stay healthy the entire year. That is definitely not a certainty, which is why this is hypothetical. I cannot stress that enough.
Now, so you have some idea of how potent the Lions pass attack was in 2010, let’s look at the 2010 stats of all three Lions QBs combined.
In 2010 Lions QBs combined for the following:
Yards: 4001 (Hill: 2686, Stanton: 780, Stafford: 535)
TDs: 26 (Hill: 16, Stanton: 4, Stafford: 6)
Ints: 16 (Hill: 12, Stanton: 3, Stafford: 1
Rushing Yards: 247 (Hill: 123, Stanton: 113, Stafford: 11)
Rushing TDs: 2 (Hill: 0, Stanton: 1, Stafford: 1)
2pts: 2 (Hill: 1, Stanton: 0, Stafford: 1)
Fumbles: 3 (Hill:1, Stanton: 1, Stafford: 1)
Combined fantasy points according to ESPN.com: 254 (Hill: 152, Stanton: 53, Stafford: 49)
These statistics put the combined three Lions QBs in 6th place behind Drew Brees at 263 and ahead of Josh Freeman at 246. It puts them right in between the division of 1st and 2nd tier QBs.
The main reason for these inflated numbers is that in 2010 the Lions were 3rd in number of passing attempts behind the Colts and Chargers. My reasoning for the continued fantasy success of their QB(s) is that the number of attempts isn’t likely to dip significantly in 2011 as there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the backfield and their premier back, Best, is utilized most effectively in the receiving game.
I don’t have anything bad to say about Shaun Hill, who played the vast majority of last season. He is everything you could ask for in a backup QB and more. That said, I believe, with his talent set and arm strength, that Stafford is better. Give Stafford a full 16 games with Megatron, Burleson, Best, and Pettigrew and you have a real monster on your hands.
Once again, I don’t mean to suggest that Stafford belongs in the conversation of elite QBs, but given his situation, breaking the top 5 in terms of fantasy success isn’t entirely ludicrous. At very least if you are a Stafford owner, show these stats around your league and trade high.
All the statistical analysis from here on out assumes he, and his receiving corps, stay healthy the entire year. That is definitely not a certainty, which is why this is hypothetical. I cannot stress that enough.
Now, so you have some idea of how potent the Lions pass attack was in 2010, let’s look at the 2010 stats of all three Lions QBs combined.
In 2010 Lions QBs combined for the following:
Yards: 4001 (Hill: 2686, Stanton: 780, Stafford: 535)
TDs: 26 (Hill: 16, Stanton: 4, Stafford: 6)
Ints: 16 (Hill: 12, Stanton: 3, Stafford: 1
Rushing Yards: 247 (Hill: 123, Stanton: 113, Stafford: 11)
Rushing TDs: 2 (Hill: 0, Stanton: 1, Stafford: 1)
2pts: 2 (Hill: 1, Stanton: 0, Stafford: 1)
Fumbles: 3 (Hill:1, Stanton: 1, Stafford: 1)
Combined fantasy points according to ESPN.com: 254 (Hill: 152, Stanton: 53, Stafford: 49)
These statistics put the combined three Lions QBs in 6th place behind Drew Brees at 263 and ahead of Josh Freeman at 246. It puts them right in between the division of 1st and 2nd tier QBs.
The main reason for these inflated numbers is that in 2010 the Lions were 3rd in number of passing attempts behind the Colts and Chargers. My reasoning for the continued fantasy success of their QB(s) is that the number of attempts isn’t likely to dip significantly in 2011 as there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the backfield and their premier back, Best, is utilized most effectively in the receiving game.
I don’t have anything bad to say about Shaun Hill, who played the vast majority of last season. He is everything you could ask for in a backup QB and more. That said, I believe, with his talent set and arm strength, that Stafford is better. Give Stafford a full 16 games with Megatron, Burleson, Best, and Pettigrew and you have a real monster on your hands.
Once again, I don’t mean to suggest that Stafford belongs in the conversation of elite QBs, but given his situation, breaking the top 5 in terms of fantasy success isn’t entirely ludicrous. At very least if you are a Stafford owner, show these stats around your league and trade high.